U.S. Black Friday Discounts Weaken Amid Tariff Impact——How Tariff Policies Are Reshaping Black Friday Promotions in 2025

For years, Black Friday has been synonymous with deep discounts and record-breaking sales.
But the 2025 season is telling a different story: U.S. Black Friday discounts are notably weaker, as tariff policies and rising import costs reshape how brands plan promotions.

For Amazon sellers and eCommerce brands, this shift affects profit margins, consumer expectations, and pricing strategies across the entire Q4 cycle.

What’s Behind the Weakening Discounts?

1. Tariffs Are Driving Up Product Costs

Throughout 2024–2025, the U.S. maintained or increased tariffs on imported materials and components — including metals, electronic parts, and textiles.
As a result, brands are facing significantly higher product costs.

For example, the cost of a copper spice stripper increased from $20 to $30 due to metal tariffs, making traditional “40% OFF” Black Friday promotions unprofitable.

How Tariffs Increase Costs

  • Higher raw material prices: Copper, aluminum, steel, and other key inputs now cost more.
  • Increased logistics expenses: Customs delays and additional duties add to freight costs.
  • Pricing ripple effect: Higher supplier costs reduce promotional flexibility for brands and retailers.

Major global brands — such as Coach, Therabody, and Dyson — are responding by shifting from heavy markdowns to limited editions and value-added bundles to protect their margins.

How Tariff Policies Are Changing Brand Promotion Strategies

1. Shift from Deep Discounts to Value-Based Offers

Instead of offering 40–50% markdowns, many brands now promote 15–25% discounts paired with exclusive or limited-edition items to avoid long-term “discount fatigue” and maintain brand value.

2. Lower Advertising ROI

Higher prices and reduced discounts lead to lower conversion rates — increasing CPA on performance-driven platforms like Amazon Ads and Meta.

To compensate, brands are investing more in:

  • Advanced remarketing strategies
  • Influencer and creator partnerships
  • Brand-building content instead of price-driven ads

3. Inflation and Supply Chain Pressures

Consumers remain cautious despite wage growth in some sectors.
Combined with tariff-driven costs, brands must carefully balance profitability and sales volume.

Impact on Amazon Sellers and eCommerce Brands

1. Tighter Margins on Imported Products

Sellers sourcing from China or Southeast Asia face higher landed costs and smaller promotional margins. Many are adapting by:

  • Increasing base prices earlier in Q4
  • Exploring tariff-free or domestic suppliers
  • Focusing on smaller but higher-margin product categories

2. Opportunities for Niche Categories

While electronics and fashion are heavily impacted, niche segments can benefit — especially:

  • Handmade products
  • U.S.-made goods
  • Digital accessories and lower-cost items

3. Shift Toward Value-Based Messaging

H3 – Shift Toward Value-Based Messaging

eCommerce listings increasingly emphasize:

  • “durable”
  • “eco-friendly”
  • “premium build”

rather than “cheap” or “discount.”

How eCommerce Brands Can Adapt in 2025

1. Rethink Pricing and Promotion Timing

Spread smaller promotions throughout Cyber Week and the holiday season instead of focusing solely on Black Friday.

2. Optimize Supply Chains

Consider alternative suppliers, nearshoring, or freight forwarders offering duty optimization programs.

3. Enhance Perceived Product Value

Add-ons such as free accessories, extended warranties, and premium packaging boost value without sacrificing margins.

4. Leverage Brand Storytelling

Consumers respond strongly to authentic stories.
Use A+ content, product videos, and social media to communicate brand mission, craftsmanship, or sustainability.

What to Expect for Black Friday 2025

Early Q4 2025 data shows the average U.S. discount rate has dropped 15–20% year over year.

Expect:

  • Fewer deep “doorbuster” deals
  • Smaller, strategy-based promotions
  • More limited-edition bundles
  • Reduced “70% off” mega markdowns

Premium and light luxury brands will rely more on exclusivity rather than aggressive discounts.

Conclusion: Adaptation Is Key to Profitability

Weaker Black Friday discounts reflect deeper shifts in trade policy, cost structures, and consumer behavior.
To stay competitive, Amazon sellers and eCommerce brands should:

  • Reassess cost structures in light of tariffs
  • Focus on value instead of discount-heavy strategies
  • Use creative promotions and strong storytelling to maintain conversions

Adapting early will be essential for success throughout the 2025 holiday season.

FAQs

Q1: Why are U.S. Black Friday discounts weaker in 2025?
Tariffs have increased import and material costs, reducing brands’ ability to offer deep discounts.

Q2: Which industries are most affected?
Metals, electronics, and home goods are among the most impacted categories.

Q3: How can Amazon sellers stay competitive?
Shift toward value-driven offers, strengthen storytelling, and explore tariff-free or local suppliers.